02 · Prove
One good curve proves nothing.
Analysis pulls a backtest apart — seven views, from monthly returns to start-date sensitivity — to show whether the result survives scrutiny, or just got lucky.
Seven views, one verdict. Growth, positions, metrics, months, allocations, components, start dates — click through every angle on the same run.
The bad months stay visible. 2022 reads red, cell by cell — a strategy you'd actually have lived through, not a smoothed curve.
Luck gets its own trial. Start-Date Sensitivity re-asks the question from every starting month — it has its own section below.
The interrogation
Ask the result three hard questions.
Any curve can look good from the right angle. These are the views that catch a result lying — or prove it doesn't.
See it on a Library strategy →Trade history
| Symbol | Name | Gross | Net | Total P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | Spdr S&P 500 Etf Trust | $128,313 | $127,173 | $146,293 |
| IWM | Ishares Russell 2000 Etf | $117,162 | $115,616 | $130,088 |
| GLD | Spdr Gold Trust | $124,704 | $123,283 | $123,283 |
| IEF | Ishares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond Etf | −$3,928 | −$4,950 | $23,164 |
| TLT | Ishares 20+ Year Treasury Bond Etf | −$15,811 | −$17,128 | $17,490 |
Per-component metrics
| Model | CAGR | Max DD |
|---|---|---|
| Large-cap equities | +11.2% | −48.1% |
| Small-cap value | +9.7% | −53.6% |
| Long-term bonds | +4.4% | −41.8% |
| Gold | +7.9% | −42.9% |
Summary
| Metric | Strategy | Benchmark |
|---|---|---|
| CAGR | +8.1% | +10.9% |
| Volatility | 9.2% | 18.7% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.69 | 0.49 |
| Max drawdown | −23.0% | −55.2% |
The luck test
Would a different month have changed everything?
Start-Date Sensitivity re-runs the question from every possible starting month — across 1, 3, 5, 7 and 10-year windows — and shows the whole spread: best, worst, and typical.
CAGR by start month
The spread is the verdict. A tight range across start months reads as method; a wide one reads as luck. Here it's 8.9 points — you decide if that's tight enough.
The floor matters most. Worst CAGR is the month you'd least want to have started — if you couldn't have lived with it, the average doesn't matter.
No competitor shows you this. One backtest is one draw from the deck. This view is the whole deck, face up.
The full kit
Seven views. Seven questions answered.
Every strategy carries all of them, computed on every run — no premium tier for the truth.
Capital Growth
How did money grow — and what did costs, taxes and interest take along the way?
Position History
Every position, opened to closed — where the result actually came from.
Performance Metrics
The full scoresheet, always beside the benchmark's.
Monthly Returns
The good and the bad months, cell by cell — nothing smoothed away.
Allocation History
Where the money sat, month by month — cash included.
Component Analytics
Each model graded separately — no hiding inside the blend.
Start-Date Sensitivity Featured above ↑
Would a different starting month have changed the story? The luck test — the view no competitor gives you.
Luck runs out. Evidence doesn't.
Every Library strategy carries this analysis, open — no account needed.
Fincanva provides no financial advice. Backtests show what would have happened — not what will.