Positive months

UPDATED 2026-07-25

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Foundations

Positive months is the share of months in the backtest period that closed with a positive return, expressed as a percentage. The metrics table lists it as "Positive months (%)" in the Monthly performance group. It is a count-based measure: every month contributes equally whether it gained 0.1% or 12%, so positive months describes how often a strategy went up, never by how much.

Also seen as: monthly win rate, hit rate, up months

How is positive months calculated?

Positive months divides the number of months whose return was above zero by the number of months in the period.

\text{positive months} = \frac{\text{number of months with a return above } 0}{\text{total number of months in the period}}

where: each month's return is the figure the monthly returns view shows for that month, and the total is every month of the simulated period.

What counts as a good value?

A figure above 50% means more months closed up than down, and a figure near 100% means the strategy rarely had a losing month. On its own the number says nothing about magnitude, so it can be high while the outcome is poor: a strategy that gains a little in eleven months and loses heavily in the twelfth can still report over 90% positive months. Read it beside best month and worst month, which show the size of the extremes, and max drawdown, which shows the deepest fall.

Defaults in Fincanva

Positive months appears as "Positive months (%)" in the Monthly performance group of the metrics table, shown as a whole-number percentage.
The same measure is repeated as a KPI on the monthly returns view, labelled "Positive months", and per calendar year in the by-year metrics table as "Positive months (%)".
It is computed over the months of the backtest period, from the same month-by-month return series the monthly returns heatmap displays.
A month that closes exactly flat is not a positive month — the test is a return above zero.

Worked example

A ten-year backtest covers 120 months, and 84 of them closed with a positive return. Positive months is 84 ÷ 120 = 0.70, displayed as 70%. That means roughly seven months in ten went up. It does not mean the strategy was up 70% of the time by value: the remaining 36 months could each have been small losses, or a handful of them could hold the whole of the run's max drawdown, and the 70% figure would read the same either way.

Positive months describes what a strategy would have done on historical data, not what it will do. Fincanva provides no financial advice — see Is this financial advice?.

Where this term is used

Generated · 2 pages

The pages that reference this term — so a term page is somewhere you pass through, not somewhere you land and stop.

What every number on the metrics page means

Analysis · The metrics page reports your backtest's return, drawdown, volatility and monthly figures; this guide explains each row, its convention and its glossary term.

Reading the monthly returns heatmap (and the NP/DD column)

Analysis · The monthly returns heatmap shows each month's return by year with Total, DD and NP/DD columns; this guide reads the grid and the costs/taxes/reinvest toggles.

Also referenced by 2 terms

Metrics table Months matrix

Deep diveIs this financial advice?

Do itWhat every number on the metrics page means · Reading the monthly returns heatmap (and the NP/DD column)

CompareBest month and worst month · Monthly and yearly average · Max drawdown · Total return · Metrics table

← Previous termMonthly and yearly average Next term →Return windows

Fincanva provides no financial advice. Backtests show what would have happened — not what will.

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